Currently , we ’re only able to predict the next year in hurricanes with any accuracy . But a new system that incorporates 35 years deserving of hurricane data has find pattern that could foretell hurricane a decade in advance .
UK investigator Doug Smith used a computer model known as DePreSys , which is currently used to make general predictions about hurricane for the next decade . He gave the model more specific hurricane information from the 1960 to 1995 seasons , such as the temperature of the ocean , wind speeds , and aura pressure .
He then used these numbers to predict what the hurricane season would look like ten years in the futurity – which , because he was using diachronic data point , mean he was really ask DePreSys to predict the 2005 hurricane time of year . The framework was accurate to within 19 % of the actual historic figures . That ’s not perfect , obviously , but even being capable to give relatively general progression monition of severe hurricane should help hold open spirit . Smith is now putting together the more late information that should allow DePreSys to predict what hurricane will see like between 2011 and 2020 .
[ Nature Geoscience ]
ClimatologyHurricaneScience
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